Canada Election 2015

If the election were held today, these are the projected seat counts based on the latest polls.

Conservative 113
Liberal 155
NDP 64
Green 1
Bloc Québecois 4
Independent 1

Do you want a change of government in the 2015 Canadian election? Vote for the strongest candidate in your riding who isn't a member of the current governing party. If all non-conservatives voted this way, the seat counts would be:

Conservative 40
Liberal 200
NDP 89
Green 1
Bloc Québecois 5
Independent 3

You can register to vote online. It's fast and easy.

Projections updated Oct 19, 2015
Strategic Vote Lookup for All 338 Federal Ridings

Visit Elections Canada to look up your riding or enter your postal code here:

The strongest opposition candidate is underlined. The coloured boxes are the current projected winners.

Alberta
Banff--Airdrie 6420115096%
Battle River--Crowfoot 7781131100%
Bow River 7016113198%
Calgary Centre 3746107065%
Calgary Confederation 3745125063%
Calgary Forest Lawn 4541103057%
Calgary Heritage 6421114196%
Calgary Midnapore 6520114097%
Calgary Nose Hill 5032125076%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 5135104074%
Calgary Shepard 6123114093%
Calgary Signal Hill 434395050%
Calgary Skyview 345772082%
Edmonton Centre 3632274056%
Edmonton Griesbach 3624373052%
Edmonton Manning 4626243178%
Edmonton Mill Woods 3841156055%
Edmonton Riverbend 4528243075%
Edmonton Strathcona 369542076%
Edmonton West 4638133061%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 5724163090%
Foothills 7312113099%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 444295054%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 7010173198%
Lakeland 7015123099%
Lethbridge 5418244088%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 5627153088%
Peace River--Westlock 6715153098%
Red Deer--Lacombe 7211143099%
Red Deer--Mountain View 6814144098%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 44181332380%
St. Albert--Edmonton 41151532575%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 6122143094%
Yellowhead 602863390%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
British Columbia
Abbotsford 4927186081%
Burnaby North--Seymour 36262810062%
Burnaby South 2728405069%
Cariboo--Prince George 3329335051%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 38272312067%
Chilliwack--Hope 4229237070%
Cloverdale--Langley City 3935206057%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 3330325053%
Courtenay--Alberni 34213113155%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 32183115451%
Delta 2551204085%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 22233419266%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 3538225054%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 4215367060%
Kelowna--Lake Country 4534210068%
Kootenay--Columbia 39183310060%
Langley--Aldergrove 4925197083%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 4523267077%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 26223021056%
New Westminster--Burnaby 2725425073%
North Island--Powell River 29233513059%
North Okanagan--Shuswap 4023317064%
North Vancouver 31451112171%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 3624346054%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 3323386057%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies 5015259084%
Richmond Centre 3743145060%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 2314954089%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 2911555086%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 3322367354%
South Surrey--White Rock 3641176059%
Steveston--Richmond East 3641176058%
Surrey Centre 2242304169%
Surrey--Newton 2153233088%
Vancouver Centre 13571614095%
Vancouver East 13255210086%
Vancouver Granville 2739277069%
Vancouver Kingsway 1839395050%
Vancouver Quadra 187084098%
Vancouver South 2847166277%
Victoria 15333913060%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country 30411513067%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Manitoba
Brandon--Souris 5417218091%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley 3844134060%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 2045323070%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 5320216090%
Elmwood--Transcona 3428344050%
Kildonan--St. Paul 4724253082%
Portage--Lisgar 642098096%
Provencher 6021164094%
Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 3147184074%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 5716225092%
Winnipeg Centre 2130409066%
Winnipeg North 1565192097%
Winnipeg South 2850184081%
Winnipeg South Centre 2167103097%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
New Brunswick
Acadie--Bathurst 1131580086%
Beauséjour 1762156097%
Fredericton 30431413070%
Fundy Royal 40262410072%
Madawaska--Restigouche 2160133394%
Miramichi--Grand Lake 3146185073%
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 1955206092%
New Brunswick Southwest 38312010061%
Saint John--Rothesay 3637225051%
Tobique--Mactaquac 4236175059%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Avalon 16491431790%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 157591099%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 1279810100%
Labrador 2067130097%
Long Range Mountains 1277911100%
St. John's East 1518652097%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 1353331079%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Nova Scotia
Cape Breton--Canso 1667125098%
Central Nova 3343178065%
Cumberland--Colchester 335377078%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 1358246091%
Halifax 1047367066%
Halifax West 1560196095%
Kings--Hants 1864125097%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 2125468080%
South Shore--St. Margarets 2638287066%
Sydney--Victoria 1965125097%
West Nova 246295093%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Northwest Territories
Northwest Territories 2637334056%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Nunavut
Nunavut 3551122074%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Ontario
Ajax 3550132072%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 3024424069%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 3649113069%
Barrie--Innisfil 4928166080%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 4631166073%
Bay of Quinte 4236174059%
Beaches--East York 1651284082%
Brampton Centre 3843164059%
Brampton East 3145194071%
Brampton North 3547161068%
Brampton South 3255112183%
Brampton West 3155122083%
Brantford--Brant 3933244059%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 4039155051%
Burlington 4142143051%
Cambridge 4140144052%
Carleton 4143114053%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 4434193066%
Davenport 1048383066%
Don Valley East 2659132090%
Don Valley North 2658141090%
Don Valley West 325693084%
Dufferin--Caledon 49251015082%
Durham 4531195071%
Eglinton--Lawrence 3649133071%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 4927203081%
Essex 3727323058%
Etobicoke Centre 385182171%
Etobicoke North 2164140096%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 3350153076%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 4732137072%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 3551113075%
Guelph 2651176084%
Haldimand--Norfolk 3844143059%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 5126185084%
Hamilton Centre 2429470076%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 3227383060%
Hamilton Mountain 2732383059%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 2653155086%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 4434174166%
Humber River--Black Creek 1469171098%
Huron--Bruce 4532203170%
Kanata--Carleton 395083066%
Kenora 3835244055%
King--Vaughan 405092066%
Kingston and the Islands 2353203088%
Kitchener Centre 2847214076%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 4236184059%
Kitchener--Conestoga 3942154055%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 4928194079%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 4436155163%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes 5031145078%
London North Centre 3150164078%
London West 3445174068%
London--Fanshawe 3026403066%
Markham--Stouffville 365662080%
Markham--Thornhill 2956123086%
Markham--Unionville 3154133083%
Milton 4045113057%
Mississauga Centre 3153133082%
Mississauga East--Cooksville 3057112086%
Mississauga--Erin Mills 3354103081%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 3553102076%
Mississauga--Malton 2754153185%
Mississauga--Streetsville 3255103083%
Nepean 3848114066%
Newmarket--Aurora 4243114052%
Niagara Centre 3428353050%
Niagara Falls 4233214064%
Niagara West 4729194076%
Nickel Belt 1637434059%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 2853145084%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 4238164056%
Oakville 375282172%
Oakville North--Burlington 4045113057%
Orléans 3154114082%
Oshawa 4817314075%
Ottawa Centre 2037375050%
Ottawa South 2165112096%
Ottawa West--Nepean 3052142281%
Ottawa--Vanier 1959184095%
Oxford 5321225089%
Parkdale--High Park 1154323082%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 4823209084%
Perth--Wellington 3639196055%
Peterborough--Kawartha 3247173073%
Pickering--Uxbridge 3054123083%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 43241022078%
Richmond Hill 3056113084%
Sarnia--Lambton 4528243075%
Sault Ste. Marie 3242234066%
Scarborough Centre 3251162078%
Scarborough North 2249271180%
Scarborough Southwest 2349243184%
Scarborough--Agincourt 2166112096%
Scarborough--Guildwood 2357172191%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 2454192088%
Simcoe North 4336156062%
Simcoe--Grey 4829167078%
Spadina--Fort York 1450333075%
St. Catharines 4038184053%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 5034142074%
Sudbury 2442303069%
Thornhill 474293057%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 2140362055%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 2532403061%
Timmins--James Bay 1426554088%
Toronto Centre 1554273086%
Toronto--Danforth 1234487071%
Toronto--St. Paul's 2162144095%
University--Rosedale 1749313077%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 405082066%
Waterloo 2950182080%
Wellington--Halton Hills 5231107079%
Whitby 4928185080%
Willowdale 3253133081%
Windsor West 2347282078%
Windsor--Tecumseh 2926413069%
York Centre 3647132267%
York South--Weston 1754272086%
York--Simcoe 5622166091%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Prince Edward Island
Cardigan 177462099%
Charlottetown 1665163097%
Egmont 315893086%
Malpeque 196795097%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Québec
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 262330616056%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 131538232060%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 144323317079%
Alfred-Pellan 124325218077%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 192729320054%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 154313326075%
Beauce 53221825089%
Beauport--Limoilou 321432319050%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix 261327330055%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 152224434066%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 501322213087%
Beloeil--Chambly 921302261256%
Berthier--Maskinongé 152827326053%
Bourassa 76416212097%
Brome--Missisquoi 124325317077%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 124823215084%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 371531215059%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 142135328062%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 311326227157%
Compton--Stanstead 142732424058%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 13532248089%
Drummond 202037321073%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 183320326061%
Gatineau 103243214066%
Hochelaga 92733329057%
Honoré-Mercier 115519213093%
Hull--Aylmer 11423737058%
Joliette 121534632054%
Jonquière 42731218068%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 102633329056%
La Prairie 133630220058%
Lac-Saint-Jean 50722119087%
Lac-Saint-Louis 24551542089%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 114526316078%
Laurentides--Labelle 112829428052%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 42636329261%
Laval--Les Îles 174129211069%
Lévis--Lotbinière 471126213080%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 113627322064%
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 112535326065%
Louis-Hébert 242825221056%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 441427213076%
Manicouagan 161435431056%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 133231321052%
Mégantic--L'Érable 551217214094%
Mirabel 122433427059%
Montarville 122830326252%
Montcalm 101440630064%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup 431324218077%
Mount Royal 2854927085%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 10502586084%
Outremont 94434310066%
Papineau 104922117086%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 102231332051%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 24511743086%
Pontiac 19403038065%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 016304203151%
Québec 212029326056%
Repentigny 101938331062%
Richmond--Arthabaska 50923215086%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques 172229328052%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 122434426063%
Rivière-du-Nord 111642329070%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 62237332058%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 201339324072%
Saint-Jean 132134429057%
Saint-Laurent 14661324098%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 11651527098%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 202527325053%
Salaberry--Suroît 172130329052%
Shefford 182136322071%
Sherbrooke 112330333054%
Terrebonne 111738530062%
Thérèse-De Blainville 122335327062%
Trois-Rivières 162136324169%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 192529423055%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 124724414082%
Vimy 143927318068%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Saskatchewan
Battlefords--Lloydminster 6011254092%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 4718314074%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 5918194094%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 4116394055%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 4319354063%
Prince Albert 5512293085%
Regina--Lewvan 4027294066%
Regina--Qu'Appelle 4715344070%
Regina--Wascana 187192098%
Saskatoon West 3230317050%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 4620313072%
Saskatoon--University 3429343050%
Souris--Moose Mountain 6217164096%
Yorkton--Melville 5721193092%
Strongest opposition candidate is underlined.The coloured box is the current projected winner.
Yukon
Yukon 2748205080%
More Info

More information about strategic voting.

All projections and strategic voting recommendations displayed on this page are calculated by an impartial algorithm. The code is on GitHub. You can download and run it on your own computer if you like. The model forecasts the popular vote in all 338 federal ridings by starting with the 2011 election results and applying an adjustment calculated from the latest regional polling data.

Election forecasting is not an exact science. Many of the riding projections listed on this page will turn out to be wrong. The data is provided under the philosophy that an educated guess is better than no information at all.

You can register to vote online. It's fast and easy.

Projections updated Oct 19, 2015