Projected winner — LIB 90%

Strongest opposition candidate — LIB

Voter turnout in the last election — 55%

If the election were held today, this is the projected popular vote in the riding of Avalon, based on the latest polls.

Conservative 16
Liberal 49
NDP 14
Green 3
Bloc Québecois 0
Independent 17

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The projections are updated every day until election day: October 19, 2015. AnyoneButHarper.net Home

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More information about strategic voting.

All projections and strategic voting recommendations displayed on this page are calculated by an impartial algorithm. The code is on GitHub. You can download and run it on your own computer if you like. The model forecasts the popular vote in all 338 federal ridings by starting with the 2011 election results and applying an adjustment calculated from the latest regional polling data.

Election forecasting is not an exact science. Many of the riding projections listed on this page will turn out to be wrong. The data is provided under the philosophy that an educated guess is better than no information at all.

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Projections updated Oct 19, 2015